Mineral speculation, industry and hulkageddon

I was looking at Cerlestes.de’s mineral trends today, off the back of thinking about how I should invest isk to best profit off the current and upcoming market turbulence I’m anticipating. Looking over the various markets, all of the minerals seem more or less stable or declining now except for tritanium and pyerite.

What is notable about this is that these minerals weren’t heavily speculated as far as I can tell, and now they’re the only ones on an upward trajectory. Interesting. Further, their primary ores are mined in highsec, which is where Hulkageddon is going to blow up a bunch of miners soon. Their supply is going to be cut and well, industrialists… gotta… industry? Yeah. Demand for those minerals will be steady, perhaps even going up to replace all the stuff blown up by the ‘Jita Will Burn’ event and Hulkageddon.

So, I’m moving away from investing in Nocxium, Zydrine and Morphite now and moving into Tritanium and Pyerite. I think the last pre-patch isk has been squeezed from the higher end minerals, and I’d like to diversify to reduce my overall risk and increase my chances at phat profit.

This speculation is further strengthened by this post from last year, from Tentonhammer. I may have missed the boat on some of it though. Check out the hulk price history in Rens.

This is the problem with still being a lot of a noob when it comes to the market; I should have seen this coming a long time ago, as soon as the rumbles about Hulkageddon started.

Covetor’s are a component of Hulk manufacture, and their price history tells a similar story. :

However, maybe this is an opportunity. Lets consult Eve Isk Per Hour and have a looksee.

12% profit? With my frankly terrible industry skills? Count me in.

Also, note that this is a calculation with ME0 PE0, as if I bought the BP directly off the market. I can buy a BPO for 2.2b and get right to it, which is a bit steep. Still, lets have a look to see what I can find better on the contracts market.

I find this in Jita:

Lets contrast this with a 0ME0PE BPO:

Seems like the 9.87m on this BPC is money well spent. I think it’s time to finally get into industry.

V

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8 thoughts on “Mineral speculation, industry and hulkageddon

  1. I would strongly advise making your own spreadsheet. Also, please note several things:
    1. Profit margin doesn’t matter. What matters is profit per slot per 24h. You can get 50% margin on small ammo, but it won’t be worth bothering if it makes you 100k/day.
    2. T1 ship market is hugely volatile! That’s because minerals are volatile and because so many dumb industrialists dive into T1 ship manufacturing. I.e. yesterday Drake in Jita was 24.5 m/slot/day while Abaddon -37m (assuming ME/PE 35/5, mineral sell orders and ship sell orders). In couple of days everything may be completely different. There is a lot of profit to be made, but make sure to recheck prices everyday.

    Also buying BPCs is a good call – you can check EVE forums marketplace (https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=topics&f=278), there is a number of BPC shops.

  2. I don’t account profit with too much detail – I update spot input/product prices couple times a day and run 23h production queues. Theoretically you would need to track every day’s batches to see how much profit they made, but that’s too much effort unless you are producing caps. I have ongoing buy and sell orders so it’s impossible to calculate median.

    At the end of every day I make my NAV calculation (cash plus sell orders minus buy orders plus inventories @ cost plus work in progress @ cost), and the difference is more or less same as profit from production queues. This manufacturing business includes a lot of trading profit – I always sell to sell orders and buy with buy orders – but otherwise the inputs wouldn’t move so much.

    Also when producing T1 ships you WILL need your own freighter, unless someone can deliver on very short notice.

    • Thanks again for the reply.

      I’m noticing that. Moving the items for the 10 ships I’m making today took 10 industrial runs. As I’m powering through a new tv show and downloading Diablo 3 Beta I don’t mind, but it would be out of the question normally.

      I have a freighter alt… but not sure if I want to ‘cheat’, given the purpose of this blog. Might just rely on the public contracts market.

      • One more thing – industry is all about economies of scale. My profits tend to be 10-15m per slot. If I had only 1 char with 10 slots, that would be 100-150 mil per day – that’s quite modest income and I wouldn’t bother setting everything up.

        However every added account increases your time spent only very marginally. I have 4 characters with total 38 slots for 300-500 mil per day for maybe 1-2h half-afk spent every day (deciding what to build and setting production queues is 10min, watching orders the rest).

        Of course it might be out of scope for the purpose of this blog.

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  4. @IO is that a 420k-620k profit per slot/h

    I got about 26 slots but I only use 2-3. Will have to utilize them more. Theoretically if you have one account and 3 max trained characters for T1, then you need to make 24k ISK/h to pay for the account. Any item can reach this profit as far as I see it. But then again 80% from that profit is from Trading.

    I made some spreadsheets to see the profit/h per slot compared to other activities. Example:
    http://evespreadsheets.blogspot.com/

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