Update: Added a fifth item
There are four things coming which are going to seriously shake up the minerals market.
- Goonswarm’s “Jita Will Burn” event
- Hulkageddon V
- Meta 0 modules no longer dropping from rats
- Drones no longer dropping alloys
- Pax Amarria made no longer refineable
These will each have an effect on the economy, some profound, some mere bumps in the road.
The Jita Will Burn event is going to mean one thing: Lots of ships being popped in highsec. Every ship that is popped is going to have its hull destroyed, and some of its modules destroyed. This will have the following affects on the market:
- Lots of minerals removed from the market from the ganked ships, and the ganking ships
- Increased demand of ganking ships, such as Tornados and Thrashers
- Reduced supply and activity in Jita; Less coming onto the market, perhaps less updates to orders
- This will either be due to Goons being effective OR perceived fear of the event
- Maybe an increase in salvage supply
Next up, Hulkageddon:
This will continue the trend of the Jita Will Burn event above, but focused specifically on:
- Ganking ships (thorax, thrasher, brutix, tornado, etc the ice interdiction post has some good ideas for what modules/ships will be needed)
- Ores supply
And it will likely go on for considerably longer. With the event opened up with prizes for anyone who ganks 10 or more ships, I expect there to be a lot more activity this year.
Next, the meta 0 item removal:
Meta 0 items have the most minerals of the items dropped by rats when they are blown up. These are a major percentage of the ‘gun mining’ minerals that come from missioners and ratters, and they will be gone from loot shortly. Further, these modules are in demand for industrials making t2 items. Every t2 item needs a meta 0 item of the same type as part of its materials, they directly fuel t2 production.
So what does this mean?
- Less minerals coming from ‘gun-miners’.
- t1 industry being more profitable
- More mineral demand for people making t1 modules
This again means less supply and more demand on minerals, which will drive prices higher. This is also a change that hasn’t happened before… so the size of its impact is hard to gauge.
The fourth item, drones no longer dropping alloys I covered in a recent blog post.
The final item, Pax Amarria, an NPC seeded good, was refineable for Nocxium and Isogen… whenever the price got above 535isk/unit, you could just endlessly refine it to make a profit. Bug exploitation at its finest! (Kudos to Mike DeVoid for pointing this out)
This has all lead me to believe that the changes coming in the market will be more dramatic than the more conservative pundits are saying, and those states will be reached quickly due to the upheaval of those events and the ongoing actions of market speculators. How quickly… none can tell, certainly not me with my limited experience.