Minerals and the ever changing economy

In a month or so there is going to be a nerf to the drone regions. For those who aren’t aware, the drone regions are a russian held area of nullsec where the pirates in belts are all rogue drones. Instead of bounties, Rogue drones drop alloys or ‘drone poo’, which is refined into minerals. These alloy rewards are going away and being replaced with isk bounties. This is bad for Eve. Why? Because you have an area of space where most of the minerals in the game are coming from, and its from ‘gun mining’ which is largely botted.

Further, the mineral compression factor on these alloys is huge. You can fit enough minerals to make a carrier into an industrial. You can fit enough minerals to make a titan in a single fucking carrier. It is bonkers.

Drone Poo - it powers New Eden

So with this nerf incoming, what does this mean for Eve? Well, mineral prices are going to go up considerably, especially the minerals that cannot be mined in high-sec. The source of these minerals will be gun-miners and minerals ferried from nullsec, lowsec and wormholes, so the supply will go down considerably. Demand will remain relatively constant, so the price will go up considerably. Further, the bounties coming from drones now will put more isk into the economy and fuel inflation, making the value of minerals even higher.

Looking at the mineral chart here, you can see that Zydrine and Morphite is not mined in highsec at all. The other high end minerals, Nocxium and Megacyte, can be mined in highsec. From this information, I believe that Zydrine and Morphite will continue to rise in price strongly, and Nocx and Mega will also rise, but not as dramatically.

Zydrine over the last 6 months

What does this mean for the economy? Keep in mind the above changes in price are purely fueled by speculation. The change is still a month off.

Well, everything is going to go up in price. Everything which is produced by minerals will go up a lot. Ships, modules, ammo, all of it. It’ll take time as Eve’s economy is strongly slanted toward oversupply, but prices will rise.

What does the smart trader do then? Start trading in minerals, for one. By flipping minerals on stations in a bullish market, you can make a lot of isk while riding the wave.

Secondly, invest in minerals to hold onto. By having your isk in minerals, you will gain capital over time as the market rises. The purchasing power of each isk you have is going to go down over time due to inflation, and that is going to be magnified with these changes to the market. The smart place to put your wealth right now is into minerals.

Anyway, progress report.

1282.3m sell orders + 190m escrow + 413m cash + 300m assets = 2185.3m total. I expect that’ll spike by another 200m when I do my next stocking run, which will be going into Frarn, a mission hub 1 jump from Rens. Its amazing the price difference 1 jump makes when there are lazy rich missioners about.

V

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6 thoughts on “Minerals and the ever changing economy

  1. Your observations are correct, your conclusions not so much.

    For the last 3 years a few things happened that are now countered by daily banning of bots. Incursions and Sanctums have caused a massive inflation in monetary supply that didn’t spill over into other goods (money is just a consumable in EVE, much like Tea Money in old China) because minerals where also botted. The combined effects canceled each other out. Only the PLEX market was effected by inflation directly because there is no way to bot and gain PLEX directly. (There are bots for everything, market bots, mining bots, belt hunting bots, sanctum bots, mission bots, both kill and courier, sleeper bots, and some I forgot)

    Since last week on monday those bots are banned on a daily basis instead of purgers once per year and banning of RMTer (who bot ofc). The income of miners, mission runners and belt/sanctum hunters will even out over time now. Since the income (or harvest productivity) has went up a lot, mineral prices will catch up now because the botters can’t provide overproduction anymore. It might even overshoot because to few pilots are able to fly mining ships properly (I can \o/) and chars caught botting can’t be sold.

    Mega, zyd and morphite harvested now from Drone poo (that is available in lvl4 missions anywhere too) will go up in price quite a bit because they are not available in highsec in great numbers, where most gametime is spend with harvesting. There is a bit of mega and zyd in mission loot but it’s nowhere near enough to cover the need to build ships and items. Nocx is special because it can be mined in highsec but there is limited supply and nobody really liked to mine that stuff in 0.0 or WH space. It may or may not skyrocket. There was further a cap on Nocx and Iso (as a mineral basket) because CCP kindly allowed us to refine Pax Amarrian. I dropped 5B into that stuff and expect to double that ISK if drone poo gets nerfed. That “if” is intentional because CCP can very well go “na na na tricked you!” on us until patch day.

    Blaming speculation for the price hike is a little odd in my eyes. If mineral prices are _bound_ to go up you can’t really call that guess work, can you? On top of that there are plenty of producers that stockpile mins because prices will keep going up. Again, that is no speculation. Mineral prices are bound to increase.

    • > I dropped 5B into that stuff and expect to double that ISK if drone poo gets nerfed. That “if” is intentional because CCP can very well go “na na na tricked you!” on us until patch day.

      > Blaming speculation for the price hike is a little odd in my eyes. If mineral prices are _bound_ to go up you can’t really call that guess work, can you? On top of that there are plenty of producers that stockpile mins because prices will keep going up. Again, that is no speculation. Mineral prices are bound to increase.

      You don’t see a contradiction in those two points? 🙂

      I think that the truth of whether the market is inflating or not is easy to prove based on the mineral index prices, especially since Incursions came out. The rest of what I said is just existing economic theory that I can’t claim is my idea, but is solid proven over the last few centuries IRL.

      The price of minerals is undoubtedly going to continue to rise, and investing money in minerals is a hedge against your losses in purchasing power.

      V

      • > You don’t see a contradiction in those two points?

        No, because I removed ISK form the system buy filling an NPC sell order and got lots and lots of nocx. So there should be overproduction of nocx, should it not? In Domain alone about 382M units of nocx where created that way (not all by me ofc). With that massive overproduction of at least 3x the mineral trade volume per day in Jita (and there is lots of resale) one would expect the market to implode. It doesn’t.

        > The rest of what I said is just existing economic theory that I can’t claim is my idea, but is solid proven over the last few centuries IRL.

        Careful there! Those theories are based on the fact that those economies use fiat money. EVE don’t got that. You would need to go back to a time before credit (about 1500) to find a theory that explains EVE’s economy. We are harvesting gold – no money printing allowed.

      • And now Pax Amarria NPC sell orders have been removed by CCP, that faucet is closed.

        Those core theories aren’t invalid with non-fiat currencies. I think they’re even stronger, given the lack of regulation.

  2. Pingback: Four major reasons why the minerals market is going to go nuts | Full Disclosure

  3. Pingback: Mineral speculation, industry and hulkageddon | Full Disclosure

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